| stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics. | we describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. the exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals p ... | 2010 | 20866255 |
| modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation. | we investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. we present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen vibrio cholerae ... | 2011 | 21752809 |
| microbiological, coliphages and physico-chemical assessments of the umgeni river, south africa. | the water quality of umgeni river in kwazulu-natal (south africa) was investigated from april 2011 to january 2012. indicator bacterial populations, physico-chemical properties, heavy metal contaminants and the presence of coliphages were determined according to standard protocols. the results showed that all sampling points failed to comply with the set guidelines for turbidity, total coliform, faecal coliform and total heterotrophic counts. salmonella spp., shigella spp. and vibrio cholerae we ... | 2015 | 24617904 |