Publications

transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak.	recent discussions on the use of variola virus by bioterrorists have rekindled interest in the parameters that govern the transmissibility of smallpox. here, the authors estimate by maximum likelihood the parameters of the spread of smallpox from historical data on an epidemic in 1967 in the town of abakaliki, nigeria, afflicting a religious group that refused vaccination. according to the authors' estimates, 79.9% (95% confidence interval (ci): 63.6, 87.9) of the infectious contacts occurred wi ...	2003	12851223
spinned poisson distribution with health management application.	consider a data collection setup during a spread of an infectious disease. examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) or influenza a virus h3n2. the health management in such scenarios quickly removes the infected cases before the data collection is completed. the estimate of the incidence rate or the chance for anyone to be immune requires using a correct probability distribution. the usual poisson distribution is inappropriate because of the impact of removing infected cases on ...	2011	21519931